RAPID SUCCESSION, SLOW TRANSITION IN CUBA

An Information Service of the Cuba Transition ProjectInstitute for Cuban and Cuban-American StudiesUniversity of Miami

Issue 92
February 4, 2008
Jaime Suchlicki*

Rapid Succession, Slow Transition in Cuba

Recent discussion about Cuba’s immediate future centers primarily on two possible variables: the first one explains that Raul Castro is more pragmatic than his older, ailing brother and that once Fidel is gone he will engage in major economic reforms. The second one suggests profound differences between zealots and reformers. Again with Fidel out of the picture, the reformers will prevail and Cuba will begin to change rapidly. Most analysts agree that a succession has taken place and that Fidel is too ill to resume power. Raul and the military are firmly in control. New leadership is likely to take over the presidency of the Council of State, the Secretariat of Cuba’s Communist Party, and the National Assembly. Yet, as long as Raul is in control, these leaders are likely to take their cues from the younger brother and refrain from taking individual initiatives.

The key question, then, about post-Castro Cuba is not who its new rulers will be or what they would like to accomplish. The key question is whether the institutionalization of the revolution under the control of the military, the party and the security apparatus will survive the transition from the totalitarian, paternalistic rule of Fidel Castro. And equally important, what can any emerging leadership hope to accomplish within the existing socio-political and economic context.

There are also other key and more troubling questions: Will the new rulers be able to exercise any major options at all? Will they fear upsetting the multilevel balance of interests upon which a new government will certainly depend? The impediments to major change are significant:
The months, if not years, following Fidel Castro’s death, will be filled by a “cult of personality” emphasizing his main teachings: economic openings will lead to political openings; imperialism is the enemy; and internationalism protects the Cuban revolution.

The military, the most important institution in contemporary Cuba, has significant legitimacy and respect and is a disciplined and loyal force. It controls more than 50% of the economy. Will they be willing to relinquish this economic control and their prominent role? One of Cuba’s major challenges will be how to extricate the military from the economy and put them back in the barracks.

A terrorized, disorganized and fearful population hoping for change from above, with many hoping to migrate. There is a strong belief among the Cuban people about the efficacy of the security services and an overwhelming fear of their repressive capabilities. The political elite sees the development of a civil society as a major challenge to its absolute authority and a threat to its long term control. The limited gains made by a civil society independent of the Castro brothers in the past few years are the result of a deteriorating economy; disillusionment with the revolution and growing unhappiness with the Castro regime; influence of outside forces; and a limited relaxation of the system’s control. Yet civil society remains weak, not very effective and watched carefully and constantly by the security forces.

The possibility of regime continuity, therefore, seems stronger for Cuba than it was for other communist states. Although their end came suddenly, it took decades of decay to weaken critically the Eastern European regimes and successive leadership changes, as well as Soviet disengagement and acceptance before their collapse. In Poland where the trade union Solidarity was born in 1980, as the first non-government trade union in communist history, a military-led government remained in power for a decade. In China, the communist regime obtained a new lease on life following Mao’s death, initially through Deng’s reforms and then ultimately through increased repression. In Syria, North Korea, and Jordan, children of former leaders took and retained power. Even in Haiti, the young Duvalier was able to cling to power for almost a decade.

It is likely that Raul Castro will draw some lessons from these events and attempt to satisfy the needs of the Cuban people. He will initially purchase massive amounts of food to satisfy one of Cubans’ major complaints. After a while he may initiate limited economic reforms, allowing private ownership of land in an attempt to increase food productivity; encourage foreign investments in key sectors where Cuba lacks technology or capital, i. e., off-shore oil exploration, ethanol based agriculture; and increase consumer goods imports from China. Given Raul’s dislike for the niceties of the diplomatic world and his dislike for speech making, he may remain in the background. He will continue to control the military and security apparatus allowing civilians to occupy key positions in the Party and the government.

These changes, however, may not usher in a period of rapid political or economic change or in a collapse of the regime. The stability of the Cuban system is based primarily on the strength of the Armed Forces, the security apparatus, and the Party structure. The organization and strength of the bureaucracy that has grown around these institutions seem to assure continuity. Barring the imponderable or unpredictable, rapid change is not likely.

Perhaps the critical challenge for a Raul regime will be to improve the economy and satisfy the needs and expectations of the population, while maintaining continuous political control. Too rapid economic reforms may lead to a loosening of political control, a fact feared by Raul, the military, and other allies bent on remaining in power. Unfortunately for the Cubans, transition may be slow and painful.
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* Jaime Suchlicki is Emilio Bacardi Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban & Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro & Beyond, now in its 5th edition and of the recently published Breve Historia de Cuba.

CPJ RECOUNTS A TROUBLING YEAR IN ATTACKS ON THE PRESS / EL CPJ RECUENTA UN ANO PREOCUPANTE EN ATAQUES A LA PRENSA

(English and Spanish versions follow)

From Violence in Iraq to Jailings in China and Cuba, CPJ Recounts a Troubling Year in Attacks on the Press
New York, February 4, 2008-

Conflicts in Iraq and Somalia made 2007 the deadliest year for the press in more than a decade, while more and more journalists are being jailed on vague “antistate” charges, many of them by the Chinese and Cuban governments, according to the new edition of the Committee to Protect Journalists’ annual report Attacks on the Press.

Trends detailed in the 2007 report include China’s onerous restrictions on the media in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, the erosion of press freedom in many of Africa’s new democracies, the criminalization of journalism in Russia and Central Asia, the loss of U.S. influence on Latin American press issues, and Arab governments’ subtle use of legal pressure to silence dissent.

Reported and written by the staff of the Committee to Protect Journalists, Attacks on the Press in 2007 also details the devastating toll of violence in Iraq, where for the second consecutive year, 32 journalists were killed in the line of duty. Iraq was the deadliest country in the world for the press for the fifth straight year.

Highlighting the global reach of CPJ’s work defending press freedom, Attacks on the Press is being released internationally at events in Berlin, Cairo, Hong Kong, London, and New York.
CPJ’s annual survey documents hundreds of cases of media repression in dozens of countries, including murders, assaults, imprisonments, censorship, and legal harassment.

A preface by CPJ board member and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour spotlights the fight against impunity in journalist murders. “Impunity is the single biggest threat facing journalists today. Murder, after all, is the ultimate form of censorship,” writes Amanpour. Attacks on the Press features in-depth regional reporting and analysis of press freedom conditions.

Some of the book’s findings:
· Journalists were killed in usually high numbers in 2007, with 65 killed in direct connection to their work—up from 56 a year earlier. CPJ is investigating another 23 deaths to determine whether they were work-related. CPJ has recorded only one other year with a higher death toll: 1994, when 66 journalists were killed, many in conflicts in Algeria, Bosnia and Rwanda.

· In Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s government has created a national security state where reporting the news can be defined as “extremism.” Under sweeping new laws, media criticism of public officials is a criminal offense. The Kremlin’s tactic of rewriting the law to criminalize journalism has been exported to countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

· Despite China’s promises to improve press freedom conditions before the 2008 Olympics, it continued to be the world’s leading jailer of journalists with 29 journalists and writers behind bars. China has held the dishonor for nine straight years. Reflecting a wider decade-long trend, Internet journalists make up an increasing portion of jailed journalists. In China, 18 of the 29 journalists jailed worked online.

· In Venezuela, President Hugo Chávez Frías’ government forced a critical television station off the air in May when it did not renew its broadcast concession. Venezuelan authorities said they were acting within the law, but a CPJ investigation found that the process was arbitrary and politically motivated.

· In parts of Africa, democracy was supposed to have taken root after years of strife, but conditions for journalists have gotten worse in several nations. While accepting praise from Western donors, repressive leaders in Ethiopia, the Gambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have cracked down on critical media, shuttering newspapers and putting journalists in jail.
· About 17 percent of journalists jailed in 2007 were held without any charge. CPJ found 127 journalists behind bars on December 1, seven less than the 2006 tally of 134. About 57 percent of those jailed were held under antistate allegations such as subversion, divulging state secrets, and acting against national interests.

· In the Middle East, a number of Arab governments publicly make commitments to democratic reform while applying pressure through legal strategies that control the press. “Manipulating the media, they have found, is more politically palatable to the international community than outright domination,” writes CPJ Senior Program Coordinator Joel Campagna.
Attacks on the Press also details progress for journalists in 2007. In the Philippines, long one of the deadliest countries for the media, CPJ did not document any work-related journalist deaths in 2007. In Ethiopia, where CPJ reported and advocated extensively, 15 journalists arrested in a 2005 government crackdown were acquitted or pardoned of antistate charges in 2007. In Russia, for the first time since Vladimir Putin took office in 2000, there was a conviction in a journalist murder; five men were found guilty of the 2003 murder of Novaya Gazeta reporter Igor Dommnikov.

Featuring an introduction by CPJ Executive Director Joel Simon, Attacks on the Press is the authoritative source of information on international press conditions. In his preface, Simon addresses two perilous landscapes facing journalists: too much government in repressive nations such as Russia, and too little government in lawless places such as Iraq, Somalia, and the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Attacks on the Press is available through the Brookings Institution Press and online at CPJ’s Web site, http://www.cpj.org/.

The Committee to Protect Journalists is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to defending press freedom worldwide. For more information, visit http://www.cpj.org/.
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De la violencia en Irak al encarcelamiento de periodistas en China y Cuba,
el CPJ recuenta un año preocupante en Ataques a la Prensa

Nueva York, 4 de febrero del 2008—

El 2007 fue el año más letal para la prensa en una década por los conflictos en Irak y Somalia, mientras que cada vez más periodistas están siendo encarcelados bajo acusaciones imprecisas “contra el estado,” muchos de ellos por los gobiernos de China y Cuba, según la nueva edición del informe anual del Comité para la Protección de los Periodistas (CPJ, por sus siglas en inglés), Ataques a la Prensa.

Dentro de las tendencias detalladas en el informe del 2007, se destacan las onerosas restricciones que China impone a los medios de comunicación en vísperas de los Juegos Olímpicos del 2008, la erosión de la libertad de prensa en muchas de las nuevas democracias africanas, la penalización del periodismo en Rusia y Asia Central, el deterioro de la influencia estadounidense en temas de prensa sobre América Latina y el uso sutil de presiones legales por los gobiernos árabes para silenciar el disenso.

Investigado y escrito por el personal del Comité para la Protección de los Periodistas, Ataques a la Prensa en el 2007 también detalla el devastador número de víctimas mortales por la violencia en Irak dónde, por segundo año consecutivo, 32 periodistas cayeron en represalia directa por su trabajo. Irak es el país más mortífero para la prensa en el mundo por quinto año sucesivo.
Para destacar el alcance mundial del trabajo del CPJ en la defensa de la libertad de prensa, Ataques a la Prensa está siendo lanzado internacionalmente en eventos en Berlín, Cairo, Hong Kong, Londres y Nueva York.

La investigación anual del CPJ documenta cientos de casos de represión contra los medios en decenas de países, e incluyen asesinatos, ataques, arrestos, censura y acoso legal.
El prólogo de Christiane Amanpour, integrante de la junta directiva del CPJ y corresponsal internacional jefe de la CNN, subraya la lucha en contra de la impunidad en los asesinatos de periodistas. “La impunidad es la amenaza más grande a la que se enfrentan hoy los periodistas. El asesinato, después de todo, es la máxima forma de censura”, escribe Amanpour. Ataques a la Prensa presenta informes regionales y análisis sobre las condiciones de la libertad de prensa.
Algunos puntos destacables:

· Los periodistas murieron en números inusualmente altos en el 2007, con 65 caídos en relación directa con su trabajo—el número aumentó de los 56 caídos en el 2006. El CPJ está investigando las muertes de otros 23 periodistas para determinar si están relacionadas con su trabajo. El CPJ ha registrado únicamente otro año con un número de víctimas mortales más alto. En 1994, 66 periodistas cayeron, la mayoría mientras cubría los conflictos en Argelia, Bosnia y Ruanda.

· En Rusia, el gobierno del presidente Vladimir Putin ha creado un estado de seguridad nacional dónde el trabajo inforamtivo puede definirse como “extremismo”. Bajo leyes dogmáticas, la crítica en los medios de funcionarios públicos es una ofensa penal. La táctica del Kremlin para reescribir las leyes y así penalizar el periodismo ha sido exportada a países como Uzbekistán y Tayikistán.

· A pesar de las promesas para mejorar las condiciones de libertad de prensa antes de los Juegos Olímpicos del 2008, China continúa siendo el país con más periodistas encarcelados en el mundo, con 29 reporteros y escritores detrás de rejas. Reflejando una tendencia más amplia de una década, los periodistas de Internet componen una porción cada vez más grande de los periodistas encarcelados. En China, 18 de los 29 periodistas encarcelados trabajaban en línea.

· En Venezuela, el gobierno del presidente Hugo Chávez Frías obligó a una cadena de televisión crítica a salir del aire en mayo cuando se negó a renovarle la concesión televisiva. Las autoridades venezolanas indicaron que actuaban dentro de la ley, pero una investigación del CPJ encontró que el proceso, motivado políticamente, había sido arbitrario.

· En varias naciones de África, dónde se suponía que la democracia debía haberse enraizado después de años de conflicto, las condiciones para los periodistas sólo han empeorado. Mientras aceptan elogios de donantes occidentales, los líderes represivos de Etiopía, Gambia, y la República Democrática del Congo han tomado medidas duras contra los medios críticos, cerrando periódicos y encarcelando a periodistas.

· Casi el 17 por ciento de periodistas encarcelados en el 2007 estaban detenidos sin cargos en su contra. Según el CPJ, hasta el 1 de diciembre, 127 periodistas seguían presos, siete menos que en la cuenta del 2006. Casi el 57 por ciento fueron encarcelados bajo acusaciones en contra del estado como subversión, divulgación de secretos de estado y actuar en contra de los intereses nacionales.

· En el Medio Oriente, un número de gobiernos árabes se ha comprometido a emprender reformas democráticas mientras controla a la prensa presiones legales. “Han descubierto que la manipulación de los medios es más aceptable políticamente para la comunidad internacional que un control completo”, escribe el Coordinador Senior del CPJ, Joel Campagna.

Ataques a la Prensa también destaca algunos progresos para periodistas en el 2007. En las Filipinas, uno de los países más legtales para la prensa por mucho tiempo, el CPJ no documentó ninguna muerte de periodistas relacionada con su trabajo. En Etiopía, dónde el CPJ informó sobre violaciones e hizo campaña en defensa de los periodistas, 15 reporteros arrestados en una represalia gubernamental en el 2005 fueron absueltos o perdonados de acusaciones contra del estado. En Rusia, por primera vez desde que Vladimir Putin subió al poder en el 2000, hubo una condena por el asesinato de un periodista; cinco hombres fueron procesados por el asesinato en el 2003 del reportero de Novaya Gazeta, Igor Dommnikov.

Con una introducción del Director Ejecutivo del CPJ, Joel Simon, Ataques a la Prensa es la fuente de información autorizada sobre las condiciones de la prensa internacional. En su prólogo, Simon describe dos panoramas peligrosos a los que deben enfrentarse los periodistas: demasiado gobierno en naciones represivas como Rusia, y muy poco gobierno en lugares sin leyes como Irak, Somalia, y las áreas tribales de Pakistán.

Ataques a la Prensa está disponible a través de Brookings Institution Press y en línea en el sitio Web del CPJ, http://www.cpj.org/.

El Comité para la Protección de los Periodistas es una organización independiente sin ánimo de lucro radicada en Nueva York, y se dedica a defender la libertad de prensa en todo el mundo. Para más información, visite http://www.cpj.org/.
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María Salazar
Researcher, The Americas
Investigadora, Las Américas
Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ)
330 Seventh Avenue, 11th Floor
New York, NY 10001
Tel.: 1 (212) 465-9344, Ext. 118
Fax: 1 (212) 465-9568
E-mail: msalazar@cpj.org
Web: http://www.cpj.org/